Contracts for brand new, single-family residence gross sales had been flat at a 745,000 seasonally adjusted annual price in October in accordance with estimates from the joint launch of the U.S. Division of Housing and City Improvement (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau. Nevertheless, the flat studying was on account of a big downward revision for the September tempo (revised from an 800,00 price to 742,000). Residence gross sales have cooled throughout 2021, relative to the top of 2020, as building prices have elevated and costs have risen. Median costs are up 17.5% from a yr in the past. In October, the median value for brand new residence gross sales was $407,700.
On a year-over-year foundation, the October gross sales price was 23% decrease than a yr in the past, when an unsustainably sturdy rebound took maintain out there. Regardless of being strong this yr, because of the cooling from the top of 2020 new residence gross sales are down greater than 4% on a year-to-date foundation in 2021. Nonetheless, 2021 gross sales are nonetheless on tempo to be the second greatest yr because the Nice Recession.
Regardless of larger costs, residential demand continues to be supported by low rates of interest, a client deal with the significance of housing, and strong demand in lower-density markets like suburbs and exurbs. Nevertheless, larger constructing prices, longer supply instances, and common unpredictability within the residential building supply-chain are having measurable impacts on new residence costs.
Greater prices have priced out some consumers, significantly on the decrease finish of the market. A yr in the past, 36% of recent residence gross sales had been priced under $300,000. In October 2021, solely 21% of recent residence gross sales had been priced under $300,000. Thus, whereas demographic-based demand stays strong, lack of entry-level provide stays a problem for the market.
Trying again to the Spring of final yr, the April 2020 knowledge (582,000 annualized tempo) marked the low level of gross sales for the 2020 recession. The April 2020 price was 23% decrease than the prior peak, pre-recession price set in January. Gross sales then mounted a historic surge from April till July, outpacing beneficial properties in precise building. Nevertheless, the amount of gross sales declined from February 2021 to June, falling under the long-run (post-Nice Recession) pattern (as indicated by the blue dashed line within the graph above) because the market seeks a brand new regular. The previous three months’ knowledge (July, August, and September) recommend stabilization is happening on the new costs/prices of the market.
Gross sales-adjusted stock ranges had been balanced at a 6.3 months’ provide in October. The graph above notes the modifications within the kinds of stock now provided: extra properties not began building/underneath building and fewer properties accomplished, able to occupy. The truth is, stock that has not began building is up 82% from a yr in the past. Accomplished, ready-to-occupy stock stays lean at simply 38,000 properties nationwide. Nonetheless, the low stock problem comes from the resale market, the place stock is at lower than a 3 months’ provide.
Regionally, on a year-to-date foundation, new residence gross sales have declined 2.4% within the Northeast, 0.1% within the Midwest and 1.6% within the South, and are 12.6% decrease within the affordability challenged West.